Prelims2
Featherweight
Bryce Mitchell vs Charles Rosa
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Bryce Mitchell
Charles Rosa
83%
17%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
19-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
15-8
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mitchell: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Rosa: 5 sig / 0 TD
Bryce Mitchell
Charles Rosa
39
Sig strikes landed
21
82
Sig strikes attempted
69
51
Total strikes landed
36
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Bryce Mitchell
"Thug Nasty"
19-4
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
W1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
15-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Si…
—