Prelims1
Welterweight
Vicente Luque vs Niko Price
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Vicente Luque
Niko Price
77%
23%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
24-13-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Luque: 130 sig / 0 TD ·
Price: 129 sig / 1 TD
Vicente Luque
Niko Price
46
Sig strikes landed
38
89
Sig strikes attempted
82
58
Total strikes landed
45
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
73s
Control time
104s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
46%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24-13-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
L
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
Blue corner
W1
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
17-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
10 fights · 6-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
L
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—