Prelims2
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann vs Sam Alvey
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Sam Alvey
63%
37%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
29
Age
Δ 5y
34
25-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
33-19-1
W3
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Spann: 51 sig / 2 TD ·
Alvey: 57 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Spann
Sam Alvey
38
Sig strikes landed
23
81
Sig strikes attempted
57
52
Total strikes landed
35
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
48s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
41%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
L3
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
18 fights · 10-8
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—