Prelims1
Women's Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carla Esparza
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
73%
27%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 1"
62"
33
Age
Δ 2y
34
21-8
Career record
Δ 16 pp
18-14
W2
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Esparza: 45 sig / 1 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 44 sig / 0 TD
Carla Esparza
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
39
Sig strikes landed
44
93
Sig strikes attempted
96
84
Total strikes landed
73
1.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
5.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
202s
Control time
159s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Carla Esparza
"Cookie Monster"
21-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
Blue corner
L1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
18-14
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—