Prelims1
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik vs Fabricio Werdum
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Fabricio Werdum
95%
5%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 3"
77"
43
Age
Δ 0y
43
61-17-1
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-10-1
W1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Oleinik: 94 sig / 0 TD ·
Werdum: 53 sig / 3 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Fabricio Werdum
33
Sig strikes landed
44
73
Sig strikes attempted
71
47
Total strikes landed
69
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.8
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
117s
Control time
117s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
L1
Fabricio Werdum
"Vai Cavalo"
24-10-1
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—