Prelims1
Welterweight
Anthony Pettis vs Donald Cerrone
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Anthony Pettis
Donald Cerrone
51%
49%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
73"
33
Age
Δ 4y
37
24-11
Career record
Δ 2 pp
36-18
L2
Current streak
L3
18
UFC fights in our DB
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pettis: 63 sig / 0 TD ·
Cerrone: 62 sig / 2 TD
Anthony Pettis
Donald Cerrone
49
Sig strikes landed
42
85
Sig strikes attempted
92
59
Total strikes landed
55
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.6
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
64s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Anthony Pettis
"Showtime"
24-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
18 fights · 9-9
Last 5
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
Blue corner
L3
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36-18
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
34 fights · 23-11
Last 5
L
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—