Main
Heavyweight
Greg Hardy vs Yorgan De Castro
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Greg Hardy
Yorgan De Castro
59%
41%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
32
Age
Δ 2y
33
7-6
Career record
Δ 16 pp
7-3
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hardy: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
De Castro: 24 sig / 0 TD
Greg Hardy
Yorgan De Castro
25
Sig strikes landed
28
61
Sig strikes attempted
68
34
Total strikes landed
46
0.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.2
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
32s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
67%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Greg Hardy
"Prince of War"
7-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
5 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
Blue corner
W1
Yorgan De Castro
"The Mad Titan"
7-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—