Main
Heavyweight
Francis Ngannou vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Francis Ngannou
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
66%
34%
Why
83"
Reach
Δ 5"
78"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
18-3
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-6
W3
Current streak
W4
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ngannou: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
Rozenstruik: 5 sig / 0 TD
Francis Ngannou
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
28
Sig strikes landed
23
77
Sig strikes attempted
55
31
Total strikes landed
23
0.5
Takedowns landed
-0.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
66s
Control time
-3s
Method
Decision
11%
KO/TKO
85%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Francis Ngannou
"The Predator"
18-3
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
83"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
Blue corner
W4
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ro…
—
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—