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Jeremy Stephens vs Calvin Kattar

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje ·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Jeremy Stephens
Calvin Kattar
37% 63%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
29-24
Career record
Δ 13 pp
23-11
L3
Current streak
L1
24
UFC fights in our DB
6

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Stephens: 57 sig / 0 TD · Kattar: 52 sig / 0 TD
Jeremy Stephens
Calvin Kattar
52
Sig strikes landed
61
130
Sig strikes attempted
135
58
Total strikes landed
76
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
3.1
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
78s
Control time
17s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L3

Jeremy Stephens

"Lil' Heathen"
29-24 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 24 fights · 11-12
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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Blue corner
L1

Calvin Kattar

23-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
L UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—