🏆 Title fight
Main
Bantamweight
Henry Cejudo vs Dominick Cruz
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Henry Cejudo
Dominick Cruz
39%
61%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
68"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
17-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
24-5
W5
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Cejudo: 53 sig / 1 TD ·
Cruz: 33 sig / 0 TD
Henry Cejudo
Dominick Cruz
67
Sig strikes landed
70
169
Sig strikes attempted
168
86
Total strikes landed
94
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
5.1
Takedowns attempted
4.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
119s
Control time
135s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
17-6
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 9-2
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—
Blue corner
L1
Dominick Cruz
"The Dominator"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—