🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson vs Justin Gaethje
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
·Vystar Veterans Memorial Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Justin Gaethje
39%
61%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
70"
36
Age
Δ 5y
32
27-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
28-5
W8
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Ferguson: 136 sig / 0 TD ·
Gaethje: 143 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Justin Gaethje
82
Sig strikes landed
83
185
Sig strikes attempted
168
99
Total strikes landed
104
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
46s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
59%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 15-1
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
Blue corner
W3
Justin Gaethje
"The Highlight"
28-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—