Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Karol Rosa
Vanessa Melo
89%
11%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
26
Age
Δ 7y
32
20-7
Career record
Δ 19 pp
11-9
W1
Current streak
L2
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rosa: 120 sig / 2 TD ·
Melo: 45 sig / 0 TD
Karol Rosa
Vanessa Melo
71
Sig strikes landed
60
167
Sig strikes attempted
161
121
Total strikes landed
76
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
230s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Karol Rosa
20-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
Blue corner
L2
Vanessa Melo
11-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—