Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Martin Day
Davey Grant
47%
53%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
32
Age
Δ 3y
35
8-7
Career record
Δ 17 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Day: 62 sig / 0 TD ·
Grant: 74 sig / 2 TD
Martin Day
Davey Grant
38
Sig strikes landed
45
95
Sig strikes attempted
103
65
Total strikes landed
80
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
8.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
203s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Martin Day
"The Spartan"
8-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
Blue corner
W1
Davey Grant
"Dangerous"
19-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—