Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raulian Paiva
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
25
Age
Δ 7y
32
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Paiva: 52 sig / 0 TD ·
Zhumagulov: 66 sig / 2 TD
Raulian Paiva
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
49
Sig strikes landed
36
112
Sig strikes attempted
79
67
Total strikes landed
49
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
100s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Raulian Paiva
22-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
L
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
Blue corner
Zhalgas Zhumagulov
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
32