Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Maxim Grishin
43%
57%
Why
78"
Reach
78"
35
Age
Δ 2y
36
W1
Current streak
—
10
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Tybura: 24 sig / 3 TD ·
Grishin: 18 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Maxim Grishin
40
Sig strikes landed
36
88
Sig strikes attempted
82
61
Total strikes landed
54
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
222s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Marcin Tybura
"Tybur"
28-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 5-5
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
Maxim Grishin
"Maximus"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36