Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Leonardo Santos
Roman Bogatov
44%
56%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
40
Age
Δ 11y
30
W5
Current streak
—
7
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Santos: 66 sig / 1 TD ·
Bogatov: 50 sig / 1 TD
Leonardo Santos
Roman Bogatov
31
Sig strikes landed
26
71
Sig strikes attempted
51
50
Total strikes landed
37
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Leonardo Santos
19-7-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
7 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson
—
W
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
Roman Bogatov
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30