Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Amanda Ribas
Paige VanZant
66%
34%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
65"
27
Age
Δ 1y
26
14-7
Career record
Δ 2 pp
9-5
W3
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Ribas: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
VanZant: 3 sig / 0 TD
Amanda Ribas
Paige VanZant
47
Sig strikes landed
41
113
Sig strikes attempted
111
72
Total strikes landed
61
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
232s
Control time
140s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Amanda Ribas
14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
W1
Paige VanZant
"12 Gauge"
9-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 5-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
L
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—