Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Petr Yan
Jose Aldo
56%
44%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
27
Age
Δ 6y
34
21-5
Career record
Δ 6 pp
32-11
W6
Current streak
L2
6
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Yan: 194 sig / 1 TD ·
Aldo: 83 sig / 0 TD
Petr Yan
Jose Aldo
87
Sig strikes landed
66
193
Sig strikes attempted
169
114
Total strikes landed
82
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
104s
Control time
86s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Petr Yan
"No Mercy"
21-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—