🏆 Title fight
Main
Featherweight
Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alexander Volkanovski
Max Holloway
75%
25%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
29-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
27-10
W8
Current streak
L1
8
UFC fights in our DB
22
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Volkanovski: 137 sig / 3 TD ·
Holloway: 102 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Volkanovski
Max Holloway
141
Sig strikes landed
152
281
Sig strikes attempted
297
151
Total strikes landed
137
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.2
8.9
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
223s
Control time
2s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Alexander Volkanovski
"The Great"
29-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 8-0
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Holloway
"Blessed"
27-10
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
22 fights · 17-5
Last 5
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar
—
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—