🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal
·Flash Forum
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Jorge Masvidal
70%
30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
33
Age
Δ 2y
36
22-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
36-17
W8
Current streak
W3
11
UFC fights in our DB
18
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Usman: 94 sig / 5 TD ·
Masvidal: 66 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Jorge Masvidal
81
Sig strikes landed
63
158
Sig strikes attempted
161
160
Total strikes landed
81
3.4
Takedowns landed
0.3
8.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
596s
Control time
53s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
33
In our database
11 fights · 11-0
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W3
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
18 fights · 12-6
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—