Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Mariya Agapova
Hannah Cifers
71%
29%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 6"
62"
23
Age
Δ 5y
28
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Agapova: 29 sig / 0 TD ·
Cifers: 11 sig / 0 TD
Mariya Agapova
Hannah Cifers
45
Sig strikes landed
41
96
Sig strikes attempted
85
73
Total strikes landed
60
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
163s
Control time
112s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Mariya Agapova
"Money Mashka"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
L2
Hannah Cifers
"Shockwave"
10-8
Career record
Height
61"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Bu…
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L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
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W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
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W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
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