Back to UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
Prelims1 Catch Weight

Merab Dvalishvili vs Gustavo Lopez

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Merab Dvalishvili
Gustavo Lopez
79% 21%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 1"
67"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
W3
Current streak
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dvalishvili: 73 sig / 13 TD · Lopez: 14 sig / 0 TD
Merab Dvalishvili
Gustavo Lopez
53
Sig strikes landed
42
131
Sig strikes attempted
94
100
Total strikes landed
60
5.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
8.4
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
342s
Control time
68s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W3

Merab Dvalishvili

"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
W UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
L UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
L UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
Blue corner

Gustavo Lopez

0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31