Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Jordan Espinosa
Mark De La Rosa
48%
52%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
31
Age
Δ 5y
26
15-10
Career record
Δ 5 pp
11-6
L2
Current streak
L3
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Espinosa: 126 sig / 2 TD ·
De La Rosa: 37 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Espinosa
Mark De La Rosa
36
Sig strikes landed
35
85
Sig strikes attempted
82
51
Total strikes landed
52
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
105s
Control time
130s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
L3
Mark De La Rosa
"Bumblebee"
11-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Zh…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—