Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Tyson Nam
Zarrukh Adashev
61%
39%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
65"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
L2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nam: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Adashev: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tyson Nam
Zarrukh Adashev
43
Sig strikes landed
40
104
Sig strikes attempted
95
51
Total strikes landed
50
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tyson Nam
21-15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
Blue corner
Zarrukh Adashev
"The Lion"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28