Back to UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo
Prelims1 Welterweight

Anthony Ivy vs Christian Aguilera

UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo ·Meta Apex
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Anthony Ivy
Christian Aguilera
48% 52%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
30
Age
Δ 2y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ivy: 4 sig / 0 TD · Aguilera: 10 sig / 0 TD
Anthony Ivy
Christian Aguilera
35
Sig strikes landed
35
77
Sig strikes attempted
70
43
Total strikes landed
53
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
91s
Control time
174s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Anthony Ivy

"Aquaman"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner

Christian Aguilera

"The Beast"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
29