Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Charles Rosa
Kevin Aguilar
39%
61%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 4"
73"
34
Age
Δ 2y
32
14-9
Career record
Δ 13 pp
17-6
L1
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Rosa: 69 sig / 0 TD ·
Aguilar: 53 sig / 0 TD
Charles Rosa
Kevin Aguilar
44
Sig strikes landed
56
115
Sig strikes attempted
129
57
Total strikes landed
69
1.4
Takedowns landed
0.8
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
156s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Charles Rosa
"Boston Strong"
14-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Switch
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
Blue corner
L2
Kevin Aguilar
"Angel of Death"
17-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hoo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—