Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Karl Roberson
Marvin Vettori
44%
56%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
30
Age
Δ 3y
27
10-6
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-10-1
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Roberson: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Vettori: 45 sig / 2 TD
Karl Roberson
Marvin Vettori
36
Sig strikes landed
40
87
Sig strikes attempted
91
45
Total strikes landed
63
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
92s
Control time
167s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
10-6
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Katt…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
Blue corner
W2
Marvin Vettori
"The Italian Dream"
20-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
D
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—