Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Caceres
Chase Hooper
29%
71%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
32
Age
Δ 11y
21
22-15
Career record
Δ 14 pp
17-5-1
W1
Current streak
W1
21
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Caceres: 103 sig / 1 TD ·
Hooper: 53 sig / 0 TD
Alex Caceres
Chase Hooper
37
Sig strikes landed
39
59
Sig strikes attempted
90
51
Total strikes landed
58
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.7
Takedowns attempted
4.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
37s
Control time
214s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Alex Caceres
"Bruce Leeroy"
22-15
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
21 fights · 10-10
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
W1
Chase Hooper
"The Dream"
17-5-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—