Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Ian Heinisch
Gerald Meerschaert
39%
61%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 6"
78"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
14-6
Career record
Δ 7 pp
38-22
L2
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Heinisch: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Meerschaert: 3 sig / 0 TD
Ian Heinisch
Gerald Meerschaert
35
Sig strikes landed
37
71
Sig strikes attempted
89
53
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.5
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
105s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Ian Heinisch
"The Hurricane"
14-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
Blue corner
W1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
38-22
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—