Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Eddie Wineland
Sean O'Malley
23%
77%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
36
Age
Δ 10y
26
25-16-1
Career record
Δ 27 pp
20-3
W1
Current streak
W3
13
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Wineland: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
O'Malley: 13 sig / 0 TD
Eddie Wineland
Sean O'Malley
42
Sig strikes landed
63
108
Sig strikes attempted
135
49
Total strikes landed
68
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
79s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Eddie Wineland
25-16-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
13 fights · 6-7
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
—
Blue corner
W3
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—