Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Cory Sandhagen
72%
28%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
31
Age
Δ 3y
28
27-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-6
W4
Current streak
W5
13
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Sterling: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Sandhagen: 1 sig / 0 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Cory Sandhagen
63
Sig strikes landed
53
132
Sig strikes attempted
124
87
Total strikes landed
77
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
6.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
210s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
Blue corner
W5
Cory Sandhagen
19-6
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—