Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Raphael Assuncao
Cody Garbrandt
68%
32%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
38
Age
Δ 9y
29
28-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-8
L2
Current streak
L3
15
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Assuncao: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Garbrandt: 19 sig / 0 TD
Raphael Assuncao
Cody Garbrandt
45
Sig strikes landed
38
92
Sig strikes attempted
102
54
Total strikes landed
43
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
78s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Raphael Assuncao
28-11
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
L
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
—
Blue corner
L3
Cody Garbrandt
"No Love"
15-8
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
W
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—