Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Charles Byrd
Maki Pitolo
41%
59%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
75"
37
Age
Δ 7y
30
10-8
Career record
Δ 1 pp
13-10
L2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Byrd: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Pitolo: 29 sig / 3 TD
Charles Byrd
Maki Pitolo
42
Sig strikes landed
38
84
Sig strikes attempted
98
54
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Charles Byrd
"Kid Dynamite"
10-8
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Vol…
—
Blue corner
L1
Maki Pitolo
"Coconut Bombz"
13-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
—