Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Alex Perez
39%
61%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
23-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
27-10
L2
Current streak
W2
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Formiga: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 29 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Alex Perez
19
Sig strikes landed
31
55
Sig strikes attempted
66
38
Total strikes landed
48
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
197s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Olivei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
W2
Alex Perez
27-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—