Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
TJ Brown
Danny Chavez
62%
38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 5"
67"
30
Age
Δ 3y
33
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brown: 43 sig / 0 TD ·
Chavez: 49 sig / 4 TD
TJ Brown
Danny Chavez
33
Sig strikes landed
33
65
Sig strikes attempted
68
59
Total strikes landed
62
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.2
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
244s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
TJ Brown
"Downtown"
17-12
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. …
—
Blue corner
Danny Chavez
"The Colombian Warrior"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33