Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ashley Yoder
Livinha Souza
30%
70%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 6"
63"
33
Age
Δ 3y
29
8-10
Career record
Δ 29 pp
14-5
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Yoder: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Souza: 46 sig / 1 TD
Ashley Yoder
Livinha Souza
32
Sig strikes landed
31
73
Sig strikes attempted
61
59
Total strikes landed
63
0.7
Takedowns landed
2.0
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
238s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ashley Yoder
"SpiderMonkey"
8-10
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
Blue corner
L1
Livinha Souza
"The Brazilian Gangsta"
14-5
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—