Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Herbert Burns
Daniel Pineda
53%
47%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
32
Age
Δ 2y
35
12-6
Career record
Δ 6 pp
28-18
W2
Current streak
L2
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Burns: 10 sig / 3 TD ·
Pineda: 57 sig / 1 TD
Herbert Burns
Daniel Pineda
27
Sig strikes landed
22
61
Sig strikes attempted
47
46
Total strikes landed
36
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
104s
Control time
158s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
48%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Herbert Burns
"The Blaze"
12-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Do…
—
Blue corner
L2
Daniel Pineda
"The Pit"
28-18
(3 NC)
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
7 fights · 3-4
Last 5
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—