Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
John Dodson
Merab Dvalishvili
28%
72%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
36
Age
Δ 6y
30
23-12
Career record
Δ 16 pp
22-5
W1
Current streak
W4
16
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dodson: 27 sig / 0 TD ·
Dvalishvili: 50 sig / 2 TD
John Dodson
Merab Dvalishvili
50
Sig strikes landed
60
124
Sig strikes attempted
152
65
Total strikes landed
106
0.7
Takedowns landed
3.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
10.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
26s
Control time
284s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Dodson
"The Magician"
23-12
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
Blue corner
W4
Merab Dvalishvili
"The Machine"
22-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—