Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Daukaus
Parker Porter
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
75"
31
Age
Δ 4y
35
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Daukaus: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Porter: 17 sig / 0 TD
Chris Daukaus
Parker Porter
36
Sig strikes landed
33
72
Sig strikes attempted
63
51
Total strikes landed
48
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
99s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Daukaus
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
Blue corner
Parker Porter
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35