Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kai Kamaka III
Tony Kelley
77%
23%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kamaka III: 114 sig / 5 TD ·
Kelley: 114 sig / 0 TD
Kai Kamaka III
Tony Kelley
41
Sig strikes landed
35
82
Sig strikes attempted
70
58
Total strikes landed
49
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Kai Kamaka III
"Da Fighting Hawaiian"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
Tony Kelley
"Primetime"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Switch
Age
34