Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Vinc Pichel
78%
22%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
37
Age
Δ 1y
38
40-19
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-5
W1
Current streak
W1
30
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Miller: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Pichel: 41 sig / 3 TD
Jim Miller
Vinc Pichel
27
Sig strikes landed
30
60
Sig strikes attempted
68
37
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
113s
Control time
187s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database
30 fights · 17-12
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Vo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. B…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
Blue corner
W1
Vinc Pichel
"From Hell"
15-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—