Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Marlon Vera
74%
26%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
70"
26
Age
Δ 2y
28
20-3
Career record
Δ 25 pp
23-13-1
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
O'Malley: 10 sig / 0 TD ·
Vera: 18 sig / 0 TD
Sean O'Malley
Marlon Vera
60
Sig strikes landed
46
118
Sig strikes attempted
119
78
Total strikes landed
52
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
—
W
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
L1
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23-13-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ha…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—