Main
Welterweight
Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Demian Maia
Gilbert Burns
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
42
Age
Δ 9y
34
29-11
Career record
Δ 3 pp
23-10
W3
Current streak
W4
25
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Maia: 4 sig / 2 TD ·
Burns: 13 sig / 0 TD
Demian Maia
Gilbert Burns
24
Sig strikes landed
39
57
Sig strikes attempted
84
52
Total strikes landed
60
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
7.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.00
Knockdowns
0.40
201s
Control time
153s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Demian Maia
29-11
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
25 fights · 17-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
Blue corner
W4
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 10-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—