Main
Lightweight
Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
Charles Oliveira
29%
71%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
28
Age
Δ 3y
30
19-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
38-11
W1
Current streak
W6
16
UFC fights in our DB
25
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Lee: 41 sig / 2 TD ·
Oliveira: 43 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
Charles Oliveira
30
Sig strikes landed
36
70
Sig strikes attempted
62
51
Total strikes landed
50
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.3
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
178s
Control time
107s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
58%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
16 fights · 11-5
Last 5
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W6
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
38-11
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
25 fights · 16-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—