Main
Lightweight
Francisco Trinaldo vs John Makdessi
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Trinaldo
John Makdessi
71%
29%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
42
Age
Δ 7y
35
29-9
Career record
Δ 8 pp
19-9
W1
Current streak
W3
20
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Trinaldo: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Makdessi: 67 sig / 0 TD
Francisco Trinaldo
John Makdessi
54
Sig strikes landed
64
127
Sig strikes attempted
121
62
Total strikes landed
81
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.1
3.5
Takedowns attempted
0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
101s
Control time
30s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Francisco Trinaldo
"Massaranduba"
29-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
42
In our database
20 fights · 14-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
Blue corner
W3
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
L
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—