Prelims1
Flyweight
Jussier Formiga vs Brandon Moreno
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira
·Ginasio Nilson Nelson
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jussier Formiga
Brandon Moreno
45%
55%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
70"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
23-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-10-2
L1
Current streak
W1
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Formiga: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Moreno: 33 sig / 0 TD
Jussier Formiga
Brandon Moreno
31
Sig strikes landed
30
75
Sig strikes attempted
82
44
Total strikes landed
49
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
196s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jussier Formiga
23-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs…
—
Blue corner
W1
Brandon Moreno
"The Assassin Baby"
24-10-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
7 fights · 4-2
Last 5
W
UFC 245: Usman vs. Covington
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—