Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sean O'Malley
Jose Quinonez
87%
13%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
25
Age
Δ 4y
30
20-3
Career record
Δ 20 pp
10-5
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
O'Malley: 18 sig / 0 TD ·
Quinonez: 0 sig / 0 TD
Sean O'Malley
Jose Quinonez
52
Sig strikes landed
52
89
Sig strikes attempted
119
75
Total strikes landed
67
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
65s
Control time
184s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Sean O'Malley
"Suga"
20-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
—
Blue corner
W1
Jose Quinonez
"Teco"
10-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Jo…
—