Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
Max Griffin
70%
30%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
20-14
L3
Current streak
L1
16
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Oliveira: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Griffin: 23 sig / 2 TD
Alex Oliveira
Max Griffin
43
Sig strikes landed
46
94
Sig strikes attempted
93
66
Total strikes landed
65
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.2
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
187s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
Blue corner
L1
Max Griffin
"Pain"
20-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—