Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Mark Madsen
Austin Hubbard
56%
44%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
36
Age
Δ 7y
28
13-2
Career record
Δ 22 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Madsen: 15 sig / 8 TD ·
Hubbard: 41 sig / 0 TD
Mark Madsen
Austin Hubbard
31
Sig strikes landed
32
67
Sig strikes attempted
78
49
Total strikes landed
43
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.5
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Mark Madsen
"The Olympian"
13-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs.…
—
Blue corner
W1
Austin Hubbard
"Thud"
18-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gae…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—