Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Gerald Meerschaert
Deron Winn
76%
24%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 8"
70"
32
Age
Δ 2y
31
37-23
Career record
Δ 2 pp
7-4
L1
Current streak
L1
9
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Meerschaert: 86 sig / 1 TD ·
Winn: 53 sig / 1 TD
Gerald Meerschaert
Deron Winn
67
Sig strikes landed
48
167
Sig strikes attempted
81
83
Total strikes landed
62
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.4
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
117s
Control time
169s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
11%
Submission
47%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37-23
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
78"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Wat…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
L1
Deron Winn
7-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—